Czech political leaders agree on early elections

The leaders of the Czech parliamentary parties agreed on 11 January that early elections are inevitable and should be held in the first half of 1998. They also agreed that they will simultaneously pursue two ways of getting to the early elections. One of the two ways is that the government will submit a law to the lower chamber of the parliament, to which it will attach a request for a vote of confidence; the second way is that the opposition Social Democratic Party (CSSD) will submit a draft constitutional amendment under which, if approved, the lower chamber could be dissolved and early elections called for June.

Presently, only the first of the two ways is realistic. While a constitutional amendment could possibly the necessary three-fifths support in the lower chamber, it also requires the approval by the three-fifths of the Senate. Most Senators are opposed to changing the constitution in the middle of the current crisis. Senate Chairman Petr Pithart has explained the reservations of most Senators well when he said that changing the Constitution now would be very much like changing the rule of a football match in the middle of the mach. He said Senators are not opposed to amending the Czech Constitution later.

The current crisis has focused the attention on the Constitution. Most analysts and politicians agree that the Constitution is full of gaps and, in particular, it does not envisage a situation in which the Czech Republic currently finds itself. The Constitution allows for four ways in which early elections can be triggered. First, if three consecutive governments named by the president (the third of which is named on the suggestion of the chairman of the parliament's lower house) do not pass a vote of confidence, the president can dissolve the lower chamber and call early elections. All major political actors, with the exception of Vaclav Klaus's Civic Democratic Party (ODS), have said that following this approach would be a farce. The current situation in the country is now viewed abroad as a regular political crisis common to many another democracies. The consecutive falls of three governments would, however, raise doubts about the stability of the political system in the Czech Republic.

The lower chamber of the parliament can also trigger early elections by stopping work for more than four months or by being unable to vote for three months. Both ways are impractical because there would be no legislative body in the country for at least three months; the Senate takes over the lower chamber's role as the country main legislative body only after the lower chamber has been dissolved. The fourth way is the one the party leaders agreed on during their 11 January meeting.

The government has been forthcoming . It has decided that in the next few days it will submit a law to the parliament, to which it will attach a request for a vote of confidence. The lower chamber has the option of ignoring such a law for three months, giving the president the choice of dissolving it and calling early elections.

Clearly, this mode of triggering early elections is the least painful one but, as President Havel has said, not an elegant one. Unfortunately, the constitution does not provide for easier ways of reaching early elections. This scenario also does not provide absolute guarantees that early early elections will indeed take place as planned. The government could, for example, withdraw the draft law or its request for a vote of confidence before the end of the three month period. The president can, but does not have to, dissolve the lower chamber and call early elections. And, finally, the agreement among the major parties that they will ignore such a law could break down before the end of the three month period. If enough deputies decided to do so, such a law would have to be put on the parliament's agenda and voted on.

Both the CSSD and the ODS have therefore demanded that a political agreement between the major parties, the government, and the president be signed. Two parliamentary parties--the Christian Democratic Union (KDU-CSL and the Civic Democratic Alliance (ODA)--immediately refused the CSSD's demand. They said that in a normal democracy a gentlemen's agreement must suffice. President Havel said on 13 January that, if reelected on 20 January, he promises to dissolve the parliament and call early elections once constitutional conditions are met. But he refused to sign any agreement, saying that a person whose word is not trusted should not be the president in the first place.

Therefore, the following scenario is likely to be played out: the government will in the next few days withdraw from the parliament a draft law on selling land to foreigners and immediately resubmit the bill, but this time accompanied by a request for a confidence vote. It will also officially declare that it will make no attempt in the next three months to withdraw the draft law or separate from it the request for a vote of confidence. On 22 January the chairmen of major parliamentary parties will meet with Havel to seal the agreement. On 27 January, the government of Josef Tosovsky will present its programmatic manifesto to the lower chamber and is likely to pass the vote of confidence that is attached to the manifesto.

This means the lower chamber can be dissolved in mid-April and early elections called for the weekend of 19 June. The Senate will play the role of the country's lawmaker after the lower chamber's dissolution but all bills passed by the Senate will have to be approved at the first session of the new lower chamber. The Tosovsky government should be relatively free in implementing its policies. It will, of course, be unable to introduce any major reform projects, such as the privatization of major banks, but in many other ways it will have an easier time than the Klaus government because the parties that want early elections know that bringing the Tosovsky government down any time after it has passed the vote of confidence on 27 January would significantly delay the calling of early elections.

Reuters - 13. 1. 1998