Czech Social democrats in trouble

On the face of it, things could not look better for the Czech Social Democrats (CSSD), who enjoy the support of over 25 percent of Czech voters, far more than any other party. In reality, the party is in trouble.

Opinion polls show that support for the CSSD has not only stopped growing but may be declining. The party that only a few weeks ago talked about the possibility of forming a majority government on its own, is now faced with the possibility it will not be represented in the next government at all.

One reason for this development is the emergence of the right-of-center Freedom Union (UN), founded mainly by politicians who had left Vaclav Klaus's Civic Democratic Party (ODS). Last year, many centrist voters decided they could no longer support right-of-center parties rocked by a series of financial scandals and unable to solve the country's mounting economic problems.

A substantial number of such voters in the end shifted their preferences toward the CSSD. However, they decided to support the CSSD mainly because the right-of-center parties offered them no alternative. Very few of such voters actively identified with the CSSD's ideas. The emergence of the US created a new alternative for such voters.

The CSSD has contributed to the US's growing popularity through a series of ill-conceived steps. Not only it began to behave as if governing could not escape it. It also announced plans to introduce economic measures some of which--such as introducing import tariffs or running a budget deficit--scared centrist voters away.

The party also confused voters on the question of the Czech Republic's membership in NATO. It claimed it wanted the Czech Republic to join NATO but, at the same time, some CSSD leaders insisted on holding a referendum on joining the NATO at a time when the ratification process in the Czech parliament had already started. The CSSD abandoned its demand for a referendum only after President Havel sharply criticized the party for its obfuscating and after opinion polls began to indicate a decline in the CSSD's popularity.

The CSSD can prevent a further decline in its popularity only if it manages to convince centrist voters that it has abandoned some of its radical ideas and moved to the political center. However, the party may find it difficult to do so, as it is internally divided between leftist radicals and centrist moderates. A move in any direction could provoke internal clashes or even a split.

Some of the more radical ideas proposed by the CSSD's leaders have alienated not only some centrist voters but also the CSSD's most likely coalition ally, the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL). That party seems to be less willing than only a few months ago to join forces with the CSSD also because the emergence of the US offers it a new alternative.

This development, however, may complicate the chances of forming a stable post-election government. A coalition between the Socialists and the Christian Democrats could command majority support in the parliament--that is, if support for the CSSD does not decline under 28 percent.. Although the KDU-CSL is not expected to win more than 10 percent of the vote, the Czech electoral system (in which the votes of the parties that do not pass 5 percent are redistributed to the parties that do pass the barrier) is such that a coalition with popular support close to 40 percent can gain over 50 percent of the parliament's seats.

A coalition of the right-of-center parties could not, at this point. to form a majority government. It, therefore, is likely that the CSSD, the US, and the KDU-CSL will be hard pressed after the elections to seriously ponder creating a grand coalition that would spare the country of further political instability. When Josef Lux proposed such a coalition, both the CSSD and the US have rejected it. It seems, however, that after the elections, the two parties will be under great pressure to reconsider their stances.

Reuters - 11. 3. 1998