Election campaign starts

The election campaign, leading to the 19-20 june election, started officially in the Czech Republic on 3 June and will end on 17 June. In reality, parties have been campaigning for weeks, holding political rallies and using media appearances to publicize their views. In the the official part of the campaign, each of the registered parties will be able to use a certain amount of time on Czech TV and Czech Radio to promote its policies.

Political commentators agree that the campaign so far seems to lack central themes. Rather, political parties have engaged in attacking each other, often on a very personal level. Czech voters at this point seem to know more about what and whom political parties dislike than about programs of individual parties.

Virtually all parties have listed "absolutely unacceptable" future coalition partners. In some cases, the reasons seem to be very personal. Czech voters now know that the Social Democratic Party (CSSD) chairman Milos Zeman intensely dislikes Union of Freedom (US) Chairman Jan Ruml, or that Christian and Democratic Union (KDU-CSL) Chairman Josef Lux will never again cooperate with Civic Democratic Party (ODS) Chairman Vaclav Klaus.

In general, it seems that the upcoming elections will not solve the country's biggest problems. First, the elections will probably not result in a stable majority government. Rather, a political deadlock resulting in in a minority or a grand coalition government appears more likely. Second, the country's bad political culture will not be improved by this election campaign. Politicians remain highly confrontational and personal. Third, a generational change in Czech politics is likely to occur only sometime after the election.

The generational change is a particularly important issue. The bad political situation in the country has been partly caused by the fact that the political establishment of the transformation period has exhausted itself and a new one has not been formed. Although a growing number of people are tired of the transformation period's leaders, such as Vaclav Klaus, Josef Lux, Milos Zeman, or Jan Ruml, a new generation has been slow in coming to leadership positions. On the other hand, younger, talented--and less ideological--politicians have now emerged in all mainstream parties. They are, for example, the CSSD's Petra Buzkova and Stanislav Gross, the US's Michal Lobkowicz and Vadimir Mlynar, the ODS's Petr Necas and Ivan Langer, and the KDU-CSL's Cyril Svoboda.

If the elections result in a deadlock, the process of the generational change is likely to accelerate, as all mainstream parties would come under pressure. But even if there is no deadlock, new leaders can be expected to rise to power in the parties that will be defeated. This would be a good development, as both the political vocabulary and the style of current leaders have lost, in most cases, their appeal.

Despite the general feeling of social and political malaise, there are also some positive signs in the ongoing election campaign. First, political parties have become less ideological. While they still use ideological labels, they talk more about important social and political themes than they did in the past. Electoral programs are, in general, more detailed and issue-oriented than the highly ideological electoral programs in the past elections.

Second, the notions of "the rule of law," "transparency," and "anti-corruption measures" are frequently used by all politicians. Although it remains to be seen how would individual parties go about bringing such notions to life, the fact that such notions have replaced the buzz words of the past, such as "speedy privatization," is an important sign of change.

Third, after the upcoming elections the political pendulum is likely to swing more to the left. In fact, under most post-election scenarios, the CSSD, in particular, will play some role in the next government. Although, the economic program of the CSSD has been criticized by experts, it is clear that being in the government will have a moderating effect on the CSSD. The party will also need a coalition partner and will, therefore, have to seek compromises in formulating government policies.

The swing of the political pendulum may be important mainly for psychological reasons. The Czech Republic is the only post-communist country that has not experienced a change of the political establishment or a really powerful leftist opposition. Realizing that such a change not only does not threaten democracy, and that, on the contrary, represents the essence of democracy, may be an important lesson for Czech citizens, many of whom--just like their leaders--still subscribe to highly ideological views of the world.

Reuters - 5. 6. 1998