How will fare the new Czech government?

The Social Democratic Party (CSSD) government of Milos Zeman, which was officially sworn in on 22 July, will face many problems that may, in the end, cause its downfall. Zeman has described his government as a team on "a suicide mission." Although some commentators have immediately criticized him for engaging in alibism, the CSSD chairman may not be exaggerating too much.

His government is taking over at a time when the Czech Republic's gross national product is declining for the first time in many years, and unemployment is on the rise. Moreover, the Zeman government needs to privatize the country's leading banks and other large companies as well as to reform the health care sector and the educational system. It will also probably need to adopt austerity measures in order to deal with a rising budget deficit. Although the outgoing Tosovsky government has done much to stabilize the economy and start important reforms of the capital markets and the banking industry, in its six-month tenure it did not have enough time to really address all problems it had inherited from the Vaclav Klaus government.

One such problem is rampant economic crime and corruption. The CSSD has declared it still intends to go ahead with its "clean hands" drive, despite the fact the Zeman government is a minority one. However, Zeman will probably find it difficult to really push for investigating dubious financial deals, should such probing adversely affect the image of the Civic Democratic Party of Vaclav Klaus. After all, Zeman was able to form a minority CSSD government only because the CSSD and the ODS had concluded an agreement under which the ODS will tolerate the CSSD government. How far such tolerance will go, is unclear.

The CSSD government will work under many constraints. The fact the CSSD has only 74 seats in the 200-member lower chamber of the parliament, will force the party to seek complicated compromises on virtually every draft law the government will submit to the parliament. Zeman will need to establish better relations with the Christian and Democratic Union (KDU-CSL) and the Freedom Union (US), both of which have been harshly critical of the agreement between the CSSD and the ODS. It is certain that in some cases, the CSSD government can hope to push laws through the parliament only with the help of the two parties because the ODS will be fiercely opposed to some CSSD proposals, such as passing a law on referendum.

The government Milos Zeman put together is uneven. Its main problems are not, as commentators have argued, that it is "too old" or that no women have been included. Rather, the main problems are the government's structure, a lack of executive experience on part of most ministers, and the controversial backgrounds of some ministers.

Zeman decided to create four posts of deputy prime ministers, each of whom will coordinate the work of approximately four ministries. The idea that the government could benefit from more coordination is not bad. After all, Western institutions, such as the EU and NATO have often complained that the Klaus government, in particular, suffered from a lack of coordination. It is not clear, however, whether the system Zeman has set up will work. It is quite possible that the tasks of deputy prime ministers and those of the ministers who will be subordinated to them will overlap. Some commentators have noted that the deputy prime ministers will be "looking for work," making the work of "their" ministers more complicated. A dispute over the division of powers already exists between Egon Lansky, Deputy Prime Minister in charge of "power ministries," and Foreign Affairs Minister Jan Kavan.

The fact that a majority of ministers have no previous executive experience is also troubling. Some prominent CSSD politicians, who had previous experience with government work, such as Vlasta Stepova or Kveta Korinkova, were not invited to join the government. Both of these women were considered to be successful in their government jobs, which they held before 1992. Miroslav Gregr, the new Minister of Industry and Trade, who also held a government post in the past, was, on the other hand, seen as being less successful. Desta, a private company he headed after he left the government, went bankrupt.

Some commentators have speculated that Zeman, realizing that his government will come under much pressure, decided to fill the posts of the ministers who will preside over the most troubled areas with people he can sacrifice and replace. Such government restructuring could also help him defuse tension that either mounting problems or unpopular measures his government will have to introduce may generate.

There are several people in the Zeman government whose past activities will generate media attention. They are, for example, Foreign Minister Jan Kavan and Internal Affairs Minister Vaclav Grulich, who have both been accused in the media of maintaining contacts with either the communist secret police or foreign agents. Although such accusations may never prove to be true, such ministers will may be a difficult burden for Zeman. Once again, it is not clear whether Zeman is not working on the premise, that replacing such controversial ministers can in the future help him diffuse political pressure on his government.

Reuters - 24. 7. 1998