Is grand coalition possible?

A series of post election meetings between Cicic Democratic Party (ODS) Chairman Vaclav Klaus and Social Democratic Party (CSSD) Chairman Milos Zeman have produced a tentative agreement that the two parties could, under certain conditions, form a grand coalition. On the face of it, such a coalition, supported by 137 deputies in the 200-member parliament, would bring the country stability.

In reality, a grand coalition formed by the two parties would be problematic. First, the ODS and the CSSD have been bitter opponents of each other for years. Zeman has repeatedly accused the ODS of presiding over a transformation process that has produced "a burned-down country." Klaus, on the other hand, has repeatedly warned against a CSSD government, claiming that the the CSSD would take the country back before 1989.

Both the voters and the members of the two parties would probably feel betrayed by a grand coalition of the two parties. In fact, the two parties' caucuses could even split, as some deputies in either party are staunchly opposed to working closely with the the former opponents.

Zeman and Klaus are at this point not talking about forming a grand coalition at the executive level. Instead, they say the ODS would support a CSSD government. But this would, in fact, be a grand coalition. The two parties would conclude an agreement, which would certainly say not only that the ODS will support a CSSD government for a period time but would also outline what the CSSD would have to give back in return.

It seems that the two parties would, above all, agree, to limit the powers of the president and to eliminate, or reduce the significance of, small parties. Both Zeman and Klaus have repeatedly said that they are conducting talks mainly because they want to prevent "nonstandard" solutions. Translated into an understandable language, this means they want to prevent the president and the small parties (the Christian Democrats and the Union of Freedom) from coming up with solutions to the political situation which could diminish the influence of the ODS and the CSSD.

Insinuations that the president may ally himself with the two smaller parties to bypass the ODS and the CSSD are expressions of nervousness that permeates the contemporary Czech politics. The president has said he feels offended by allegations that he is going to seek non-standard solutions. So far he has based his decisions strictly on the electoral results and asked Zeman to lead talks on forming a government. And he said that he would ask Klaus to do the same, should Zeman fail.

The biggest problem of a CSSD-ODS grand coalition would be that such a coalition would be constructed as a defensive alliance against supposed enemies. Very little space would be left for constructive solutions, such as moving ahead with needed reforms. The ideologies of the two parties are simply too different to allow for agreements on such constructive solutions.

As President Havel has said, he would have to live with such a coalition, if it is indeed formed, but would not be happy about its existence. The two parties would command a comfortable constitutional majority and would, therefore, be tempted to pass constitutional amendments tailored to their needs. One such amendment could be a change of the electoral system that is used in electing the lower chamber of the parliament.

While such a change may, in fact, be desirable (since the proportional system, that is used currently, produces deadlocks) it should not be simply tailored to the two parties' needs, with the purpose of eliminating political opponents. The president's powers, too, should be defined more precisely, but changing the president's role should not be done with the objective of gaining advantages for the two currently strongest political parties. Such steps could easily be viewed by Western countries as introducing into Czech politics elements that resemble political developments in Slovakia under the leadership of Vladimir Meciar and complicate the country's efforts to join the EU.

Reuters - 1. 7. 1998