Is Opposition agreement about to collapse?

Several recent developments have prompted speculations that the so-called opposition agreement between the Social Democrats (CSSD) and the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) is about to collapse. Two weeks ago, the parliament's lower chamber rejected a budget proposed by the CSSD government, but the Christian Democratic Union (KDU-CSL) refused to follow an ODS recommendation that the parliament set a mandatory limit on a budget deficit. It means, the government can submit to the parliament a new budget which will have even a higher deficit than the one it proposed the first time.

The ODS immediately accused the KDU-CSL and the CSSD of courting each other and of preparing the ground for a possible future coalition. Some commentators speculated that the ODS may even cancel the opposition agreement, under which the CSSD has been able to keep alive its minority government. The KDU-CSL's refusal to support the ODS during the budget vote was a clever move. It reminded Czech voters that there are other parties than just the two biggest ones, that have dominated Czech politics since the elections.

The KDU-CSL's move made the ODS nervous because it made it more difficult for the ODS to follow a scenario that many analysts had expected to take place. Under this scenario, the ODS would reject (as it did) the government budget in the first round of voting. Since the first budget vote took place before the upcoming Senate elections, the ODS could project the image of a real opposition party, rather than that of a contractual ally of the CSSD. In the second round of voting on the budget, the ODS would help the CSSD's budget to make it through the parliament, in return for small budget cuts.

The KDU-CSL's move has forced the ODS to play the role of a real opposition party even during the next budget vote, but, at the same time, casts doubt on the ODS's usefulness for the CSSD. In fact, CSSD Chairman Milos Zeman has aid his party is well prepared for a possible cancellation of the opposition agreement by the ODS.

In another development, according to various reports, the stances of some leaders of the Union of Freedom (US) toward cooperating with the CSSD have been changing. The US, as whole, is now allegedly more ready than it was during the post-election negotiations in June and July, to work with the CSSD. Much will depend on how the party will fare in the Senate elections. For example, should US Chairman Jan Ruml lose his electoral contest with Prague Mayor Jan Koukal (ODS), he is likely to be replaced by another politician as the US chairman.

Should that politician be a more pragmatic politician than Ruml, the US may decide to work with the CSSD. On the other hand, should that politician be a follower of Ruml, who has staunchly refused to work with the CSSD, or even tolerate a CSSD government, the US may split. More pragmatic, centrist politicians could under such circumstances leave the US parliamentary caucus and join the KDU-CSL. Since the possible coalition of the CSSD and the KDU-CSL has 94 seats in the 200-member lower chamber, the defection of seven US politicians to the KDU-CSL would give such a coalition a parliamentary majority.

All such speculations should, however, be viewed with caution. The CSSD and the ODS do not have compelling reasons to cancel their agreement. Should the agreement collapse, the ODS would lose important posts, such as that of the chairman of the lower chamber. The CSSD, on the other hand, would have to make compromises with any potential coalition partner. It does not have to do so now.

Yet, CSSD leaders also realize that a majority coalition would make it easier for the CSSD to push trough the parliament some principal reforms, such the reform of state administration. CSSD views are, after all, in many areas very close to those of the KDU-CSL. Regardless of whether the KDU-CSL in the end will become a coalition partner of the CSSD, it is clear that the Christian Democrats have found a way to make the ODS less secure and that they will continue to undermine the opposition agreement.

Reuters - 29. 10. 1998