Opinion polls show that people want consensus

Recent opinion polls indicate that a large majority of Czechs are unhappy with the political situation in the country. Most Czechs do not trust politicians and political parties. People also feel that political parties are difficult to distinguish one from another. A large number of people believe that the June elections will result in a political deadlock. Should that indeed be the case, more than one third of people would prefer a grand coalition to other solutions. A minority government is preferred by only about 10 percent of people.

What are the reasons for such social mood? The overall disappointment with politics has partly to do with two important facts. First, political culture in the Czech Republic is very low; second, Czech politics finds itself in a temporary vacuum caused by the collapse of the political establishment of the transformation period.

Political culture, as it has developed since 1991 (when the Civic Forum disintegrated into political parties), has been based on confrontation and a lack of dialogue. In 1992-96 opposition was weak and, at times, hysterical. The absence of a strong opposition, in turn, made it possible for old communist-style habits (such as the authoritarian style of making decisions or a lack of communication) to creep back into the country's political life. The Klaus-led coalition governments loathed discussing important issues with the opposition or the public. Klaus promoted governing based on the premise "we know it all."

This kind of political culture has survived even after the Klaus government collapsed in December 1997. The Tosovsky government has tried hard to introduce a different political style--and partly has managed to do so. But political parties, caught in the swirl of pre election campaigning, have been unable to do so.

At the same time, the main pillars of the political establishment of the transformation period have collapsed. The popularity of Klaus plummeted last year. His Civic Democratic Party (ODS) has split, losing many of its supporters. The other civic party that played an important role in the transformation process--the Civic Democratic Alliance (ODA)--virtually disappeared following a party financing scandal. Although the politicians who left the ODS have been able to form a new viable party--the Freedom Union (US)-- that enjoys considerable support, the right-side of the political spectrum is in disarray. Many centrist and center-right voters simply do not know whom to vote for.

The Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD) has failed to attract most of such "lost" voters. And many voters who now say that they will vote for the CSSD will do so not because they identify with the CSSD's program but, rather, to register their disapproval of the right-of-center governments' past policies. The most important reason why the CSSD has failed to attract centrist voters is the party's rhetoric, which is both radical and populist at times.

Although party leaders both on the left and the right side of the political spectrum reject forming a grand coalition with parties from the opposite ideological camps, opinion polls show that there is strong social demand for such a solution. Ordinary people are increasingly disgusted with political battles over trivial issues, with mutual recriminations, and mindless conflicts. While politicians still loathe the possibility of forming a grand coalition, an increasing number of the people are sending them the message that they want them to put their differences aside and search for compromises. The stability of the country should be put above party and personal interests.

The only party that has openly proposed a grand coalition is the Christian Democratic Union (KDU-CSL) which says it can imagine forming a coalition with the CSSD and the US. But the leaders of both the US and the CSSD have rejected such a possibility. The CSSD even officially voted it will not cooperate with the US. The KDU-CSL itself rejects any cooperation with Klaus's ODS, which could take the US's place in such a grand coalition. Although ODS chairman Klaus and CSSD chairman Zeman waged political battles on each other, they have lately been more conciliatory toward each other.

Clearly, the political situation in the country before the elections is bad. And it is not very likely that the very same political leaders, whose political styles have caused the current crisis, will be able to change. Should the elections end in a deadlock, politicians will be under pressure to find solutions that do not threaten he country's stability and do not diminish the Czech Republic's chances to successfully start membership negotiations with the EU. Should they be unable to do, the process of the disintegration of the current political establishment, which was formed seven years ago, will accelerate.

Reuters - 29. 4. 1998