Political future of Milos Zeman is uncertain

Only a few weeks ago, Milos Zeman, chairman of the Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD), appeared to be destined to become the country's next prime minister. In fact, the CSSD was so confident that it would form the next government that it nominated Zeman for the post. However, the so-called Bamberg affair has badly damaged Zeman's political fortunes. He himself is now saying that he is so disgusted with allegations made against him that he may quit politics.

Zeman, however, has mainly only himself to blame. He has been politically damaged not so much by the merit of the Bamberg scandal as he has been hurt by his handling of the affair. The scandal itself is based on allegations that may never be proven true. According to those allegations, Zeman and his associates in 1995 secretly met with a group of Czech-Swiss businessmen who offered the CSSD a substantial loan in exchange for the CSSD's promise to give the businessmen and their friends important posts in the Czech Republic's government after the CSSD has won the elections.

Clearly, a politician such as Zeman would have to be aware of possible political dangers involved in such a deal, in particular should the deal be put on paper. Most ordinary Czechs would find it difficult to believe that Zeman could be so naive as to sign a memorandum outlining such a deal. A copy of such a memorandum was given to Czech Television by one of the Czech-Swiss businessmen. His allegations have been indirectly confirmed by one of Zeman's associates at that time, CSSD Deputy Chairman Karel Machovec.

The businessman who made the charges is known to have been involved in dubious deals. His reputation is bad. And Machovec has not been consistent in describing what actually happened in Bamberg three years ago. He claims that the memorandum outlining the deal, and signed by Zeman and his associates, is a forgery but its contents correspond to handwritten notes taken by Machovec during the meeting.

Thus, it seems that the most serious damage to Zeman's political fortunes has been done y Zeman himself. At first the CSSD chairman was evasive, claiming he could nor remember what happened in Bamberg. He claimed later that he threw the businessmen out about five minutes after they revealed the conditions of the deal and that he did not sign anything. When pressed by journalists, Zeman changed his story yet again, saying he did a sign a document but no memorandum. He has laso been inconsistent when describing the number and the lenght of the meetings. He has claimed that Machovec is lying or is being manipulated, although parts of Machovec's story appear to be true. In his latest move, Zeman has announced he will not speak about the Bamberg affair for one month while it is being investigated by the the Czech Intelligence Service (BIS).

Zeman has followed the same path as several other leading Czech politicians in recent months. Instead of trying to set the facts straight immediately, he has obfuscated. What is likely to damage him the most is not the seriousness of the allegations. Rather, he will be damaged by his evasive behavior which created the impression in the public that he is lying.

The CSSD until recently benefited from the fact that it was the last major party in the Czech Republic that was not tarnished by dubious financial deals. Its leaders tried to project the image of being forthright and sincere. In fact, one of the CSSD's main electoral promises has been to introduce transparency and order into a society plagued by corruption and a lack of honesty.

The fact Zeman has been unable to be sincere and honest may now prompt many voters to turn away not only from him but the CSSD. The party is, in many ways, Zeman's creation. Under his leadership its electoral performance improved from 6 percent in 1992 to 26 percent in 1996. It is not surprising that CSSD leaders have decided to stand by their leader at this point. Machovec, on the other hand, has been sacrificed; he will not be featured on the CSSD ticket in the upcoming elections.

The CSSD is, however, taking a big risk. While changing a party leader is a difficult and tricky thing to do only three months before the elections, the CSSD's efforts to keep Zeman at the helm may backfire. Zeman has been badly mentally shaken by the affair. He has skipped party meetings, claiming he is "deadly tired." While he may indeed be facing unfair allegations, his behavior may convince even more voters that he is hiding the truth. Should that happen, support for the CSSD could be significantly reduced.

Reuters - 26. 3. 1998