Possible Coalitions After Elections

Opinion polls indicate that the June elections are not likely to produce results that would make possible creating a stable majority government. Only a few weeks before the elections, opinion polls are showing that the Social Democratic Party (CSSD) would win, with about 25 percent of the popular vote, followed by the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) of former Prime Minister Vaclav Klaus, with approximately 15 percent. The Union of Freedom (US), formed by a group of former ODS politicians, would finish third, with between 10 and 15 percent of the popular vote. The Communists would gain about 10 percent, while the far-right Republicans and the Christian Democratic Union (KDU-CSL) would both win about 7 percent of the popular vote. Polls also indicate that the currently extra parliamentary Pensioners' party (DZJ) could clear the electoral hurdle of 5 percent. Some polls even show it could gain as much as 10 percent of the vote.

Given the fact that none of the other parties are willing to form a coalition with the Republicans or the unreformed Communists, the predicted electoral results would make it very difficult to put together a stable government. The most natural political ally of the CSSD at this point seems to be the Pensioners. A typical one-issue party, the DZJ would give the CSSD the necessary parliamentary support in return for the CSSD's promise to meet some of its demands. They DZJ be easily controlled by the powerful CSSD.

The CSSD-DZJ coalition, however, could gain a parliamentary majority only if both parties gain more support than opinion polls currently indicate. That could still happen, as there is a large group undecided voters. Many of those voters are in the end expected to vote against the current political establishment.

Should the CSSD and the DZJ not have a majority, they are likely to turn to the KDU-CSL. Only three months ago, it seemed that a coalition of the CSSD and the KDU-CSL could have a majority in the parliament. Although some KDU-CSL leaders were opposed to such a coalition, there were indications that the KDU-CSL could in the end be persuaded to join the CSSD in a new government. However, a coalition with both the CSSD and the DZJ would be a more difficult proposition for the KDU-CSL. The DZJ is a populist party dominated by former communists. KDU-CSL voters, many of them Christians, would find such a coalition difficult to accept.

A coalition consisting of right-of-center parties could not, if the opinion polls are correct, form a stable majority government. It, therefore, seems, that the ODS and/or the US could be represented in the government only one or both of them were willing to join a grand coalition with the CSSD or if they were willing to form a minority government.

A grand coalition consisting of the ODS and the CSSD has been intensely discussed in Czech media recently. CSSD chairman Milos Zeman and ODS chairman Vaclav Klaus, old rivals, have met several time in recent weeks. Although they both deny discussing a possible coalition, such a coalition is not entirely impossible. While the two parties differ on concrete points, they share some tactical objectives, such as reducing the political power of the president. The fact the Czech Republic has started membership negotiations with the European Union also significantly narrows the space for political and economic maneuvering by either party. On the other hand, while Zeman and Klaus may now see each other as potential partners, the voters of both parties would most likely see a grand coalition between the two parties as a betrayal of the two parties' ideological principles. The CSSD, which is less coherent than the ODS, could even be in danger of splitting.

A grand coalition including the CSSD, the KDU-CSL, and the US has been proposed by KDU-CSL chairman Josef Lux. However, such a coalition could probably work only if the three parties' leaders were not represented in the government. Mutual animosities between Zeman and US chairman Jan Ruml are so intense that they have ruled out any possible cooperation.

If attempts to form a majority government fail, several possible minority coalitions could emerge. For example, the CSSD and the DZJ could decide to form such a coalition. Some observers suggest that such a coalition could probably rely on tacit support from Communists. However, any such systematic support would be hardly acceptable to many CSSD members. Moreover, the CSSD could politically harm itself by relying on the unreformed Communists.

A minority coalition involving only right-of-center parties is less likely. The CSSD is prepared to take over the government, as it often points out. It would find it difficult to tolerate a coalition of the parties whom it has severely criticized in the past few years. A minority coalition between the KDU-CSL and the CSSD would probably have a better chance of surviving. The US has indicated that it may be willing to tacitly support such a coalition.

Any solution other than a majority government formed by the parties of a similar ideological bent is, however, likely to be only a temporary one. A grand coalition or a minority government could probably survive for a period of time only if the major parties also agreed on changing the country's electoral system. Such a coalition would then not only preside over the electoral law changes but would, at the same time, lead the country to early elections.

Reuters, Prague Business Journal - 21. 5. 1998