The Rise of the Civic Democratic Party

The popularity of the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) of former Prime Minister Vaclav Klaus has been rising in the past few weeks. In January, after a group of prominent ODS politicians left the party in protest against Klaus's unwillingness to deal openly with charges of dubious financing practices and corruption within the party, the popularity of the ODS dropped to some 10 percent. At that point commentators were writing political obituaries for the party that had dominated Czech politics for six years.

The resurrection of the ODS has been caused by several developments. The party submitted itself to a financial audit, whose results were published several weeks ago. Although the audit uncovered a number of problems in the ODS's financing, it failed to prove conclusively that the ODS had a secret account in Switzerland--an accusation that harmed the party last December. ODS leaders, including Klaus, still reject political responsibility for the party's financial machinations but some voters may be appreciative of the fact that the ODS is the only party that has allowed its finances to undergo such a public scrutiny. The importance of the ODS's problems has been partly diminished by the fact that other parties have had their own share of problems linked to dubious party financing practices.

Another reason why the ODS's popularity has been on the rise is the unimpressive performance of the Union of Freedom (US), which was formed in February by politicians who left the ODS. The US became at first a popular alternative to the ODS. In March it was supported by about 15 percent of Czech voters, surpassing the ODS by 5 percentage points. However, despite the fact the US prepared a good, comprehensive electoral program, its leaders have failed to convince voters that the US is a credible political group. The party's profile is nebulous. US chairman Jan Ruml is seen as an honest politician but he clearly lacks the leadership qualities of Klaus.

When the US made public its lists of candidates for the upcoming elections, the names of many former ODS politicians were missing. Many of them clearly do not like the fact that new people are taking over the party. Former Transportation Minister Jindrich Vodicka has even left the US, announcing that he would reapply for membership in the ODS. A group of other former ODS politicians has published an analysis of various failures of the the political right in the Czech Republic, which is critical of some US leaders for disclaiming responsibility for the ODS's problems. The analysis is very much in line with arguments repeatedly made by Klaus.

In other words, while the ODS projects unity, the US appears disunited. And while rejuvenated Klaus gives his party leadership, Ruml appears to be uncomfortable in his position. As a result, many Czech voters who want to vote for a right-of-center party have apparently abandoned the US and are returning to the ODS.

The ODS has also been helped by the erratic behavior of the Social Democratic Party (CSSD) Chairman Milos Zeman. His recent announcement that he possessed documents proving that Ruml and President Havel have conspired to bring down the Klaus government, have prompted protests even among Zeman's closest associates. Some recent controversial proposals by the CSSD, such as its plan to limit the independence of the Central Bank, have scared moderate voters.

However, despite the CSSD's recent tactical mistakes, most voters who are returning to the ODS appear to be those who are leaving the US. The popularity of the CSSD remains stable--at about 25 percent. This poses a problem for Klaus, who has declared he now wants to defeat the CSSD in the June elections.. Unless the ODS is able to begin eroding the electoral base of the CSSD, it cannot hope to win the elections.

But even if the ODS should be able to do defeat the CSSD, it may have problems to form a government. Its most natural coalition partner, the US, will become even weaker if the ODS's popularity grows further, as most new ODS voters are likely to come from the US. It could mean the US, whose popularity has dropped to some 8 percent, could fail to clear the electoral hurdle of 5 percent. Another former ally of the ODS, the Civic Democratic Alliance (ODS) has virtually disintegrated and decided to give its participation in elections. Yet another former coalition partner of the ODS, the Christian Democratic Union (KDU-CSL), says it will not form a coalition with the ODS as long as Klaus remains at the helm and as long as the party has not dealt seriously with its financial problems. The ODS is thus in a precarious situation: Should its rise in polls continue, it could become the strongest party once again, but would have no coalition partner to form a government with.

A more realistic prediction than that the ODS's will win is that the party will gain between 15 and 20 percent of the popular vote, placing second, after the CSSD. Although such an electoral performance would give the ODS more seats in the parliament than it could hope for in January, the party would most likely end up in the opposition. Speculations about a grand coalition between the ODS and the CSSD appear to be unrealistic, given the two parties', and their leaders', intense mutual animosities. A real test of the ODS's internal cohesiveness therefore still lies ahead, because the ODS was built as a party of power. Many of its members, and supporters, may start leaving the party should its various links to powerful posts in the state administration and financial institutions be severed.

Reuters - 28. 5. 1998