Scenarios of post-election cooperation

Various statements made by leaders of major political parties suggest that forming a majority coalition after the June elections will be a daunting task. Mutual animosities among major political subjects and, in particular, their leaders, are often so strong that they prevent from cooperating even those parties that have very similar programs and ideological orientations.

The electoral campaign is likely to be dominated by mutual recriminations. Formulating and discussing solutions to the Czech Republic's problems or outlining long-term visions for the country's development will be secondary. In short, the upcoming elections will not be about substantial political and economic issues but, rather, about which party has more "skeletons" in the closet. Virtually all major political parties have been rocked by financial and other scandals recently; more can be expected to emerge.

The series of scandals has significantly changed the Czech political landscape. The coalition of the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) of Vaclav Klaus, the Civic Democratic Alliance (ODA), and the Christian Democratic Union (KDU-CSL) fell apart in December 1997 after a scandal rocked the ODS. The party in the end split, its popularity ratings plunging to some 10 percent. Since then the ODA, too, has been shaken by a scandal. It was even less fortunate than the ODS--its best known leaders have left the party, and it is currently supported by only about 1 percent of Czechs.

The Union of Freedom (US), that was formed by politicians who left the ODS, is currently the second most popular party in the country, with some 13 percent in popular support. However, the party's base of support seems to be rather fragile. The US has not developed a solid network of local organizations. Its electoral program, too, remains unfinished. What voters seem to like the most about the party is its non confrontational political style and the fact it is open to new ideas.

The Social Democratic Party (CSSD), currently the strongest party in the country, with some 2 percent in popular support, has also been rocked by a major scandal, which has badly shaken the party. Only two months ago, the CSSD was predicted to win the elections with such a large margin that it could possibly form a government on its own. Now it is certain that it will have to look for coalition partners.

However, forming coalitions will be difficult not only because the reputation of some parties, especially the the OS, has been badly hurt. It will be difficult also because leaders of various parties claim that they will never enter into a coalition with some other leaders. Ostentibly, this is so for ideological reasons. In reality, Czech political leaders are rather immature. Not even the latest crisis has taught them that politics cannot be based only on mindless confrontation and ideological hostility. They have not learned the lesson that most politicians in developed democracies have learned a long time ago; namely, that one does not say "never" in politics. In other words: that politics is also about compromises made for the sake of stability.

In the Czech Republic, a recent CSSD conference officially approved CSSD chairman Milos Zeman's demand that the party must not form a coalition with the US. Zeman even described the US as the CSSD's biggest enemy. The US itself is also opposed to cooperating with the CSSD, although its stance is less staunch. The KDU-CSL has said it will not cooperate with Klaus's ODS. And no mainstream democratic party can afford to cooperate with the unreformed Communists and the far-right Republicans, which, between them, currently control 40 seats in the 200 member lower chamber of the parliament and whose influence after the elections may even increase.

All of this means that unless one party (or two parties that do not exclude mutual cooperation) gain a majority of seats in the parliament's lower chamber, putting together a stable government after the elections will be extremely difficult. The latest opinion polls suggest that the country is headed for yet another post election deadlock. One way out would be forming a grand coalition involving several major parties. However, given the mutual animosities, this is unlikely. A minority government of, for example, the CSSD and the KDU-CSL, supported or tolerated by one of the right-of-center parties is another possibility. But, once again, such support may be very fragile given the mutual animosities. The Czech Republic may thus be headed for very difficult times, unless political leaders manage to see that their confrontational political style is not only counterproductive for the country but may also damage their own political fortunes.

Reuters - 12. 4. 1998