Senate election sent important signals

The Senate election, held in two rounds on 13-14 November and 20-21 November, was expected to be rather uneventful, if only because it was taking place in only 27 out of a total of 81 Senate districts. In reality, the election has produced a political earthquake. The most important result of the election is the decisive victory of the coalition of small right-of-center parties--the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL), the Union of Freedom (US), the Civic Democratic Alliance (ODA), and the Democratic Union (DEU)--over the two largest parties, the ruling Social Democrats (CSSD) and the Civic Democratic Party (ODS). The coalition won more seats than the two largest parties together.

The CSSD and the ODS signed the so-called opposition agreement after the June general elections, under which the ODS agreed to tolerate a CSSD government in exchange for getting high political posts. The two parties also agreed to change the electoral system with the purpose of minimizing the influence of small parties, or eliminating them altogether. Another joint objective of the two parties was to change the Constitution. Senate election results represent a defeat of the opposition agreement. Instead of rejecting small parties, voters strengthened their presence in the upper chamber. The coalition of the four parties is now the strongest political block in the Senate.

Some analysts have argued that the results of the elections should not be overestimated, as only some 25 percent of the eligible voters participated in the elections. The low voter turnout can be explained in a number of ways--for example, by the growing disgust among people with politics and by the lack of popularity of the Senate. But the result also mean that the CSSD (which won only 3 seats), in particular , simply did not manage to mobilize its voters. That in itself is an important message, testifying to a rather lukewarm support for the CSSD among those voters who supported it in the June general elections as well as among those voters who support the CSSD in opinion polls.

The CSSD has to draw lessons from its stunning defeat. Explanations such as that the party did not pay enough attention to choosing the best personalities only shroud a more important message; namely, that the voters are not happy with the way the CSSD government has performed since it was formed in July. Many CSSD voters are also not comfortable with the opposition agreement. Opinion surveys conducted shortly before the second round of the election indicated that only 10 percent of CSSD voters supported ODS candidates in those districts in which CSSD candidates failed to qualify for the second round.

Clearly, the CSSD needs to think hard about expanding the base of support for its government. In light of the election results, the weak minority government has become even weaker. The CSSD will, therefore, need to think about how to form a coalition that would give the government more support. The KDU-CSL is a natural coalition partner, as the two parties have grown closer in recent months. But the CSSD and the KDU-CSL together do not have a parliamentary majority. As the KDU-CSL refuses to rely on the Communists for tacit support, the only way to create a majority coalition is to win the support of the US. There are some indications that the US may do that.

The center-right parties (ODS, KDU-CSL, US) could also form a majority coalition. However, relations between leaders of the two small parties and ODS leaders (Vaclav Klaus, in particular) have deteriorated to the point where forming such a coalition is not feasible--at least as long as Klaus is the ODS's candidate for the post of prime minister.

Regardless of what will happen, the Senate election has set into motion developments that will threaten the opposition agreement. The CSSD has realized that the agreement is no longer advantageous for it. Adhering to the agreement could in the long run damage the party. The first signs of a rebellion against the agreement within the CSSD have already appeared. For example, although under the agreement an ODS politician should replace Petr Pithart as Senate Chairman, some CSSD Senators now openly oppose the deal.

A more general lesson emerging from the election is that there is a large degree of apathy among Czech voters. The voter participation was low not only in the Senate election but also in the communal elections which were held jointly with the first round of the Senate election. People seem tired of the inability of Czech political leaders to concentrate on important issues. The biggest winner of the communal election were independent candidates. This suggests that an increasing number of people do not trust political parties. The abysmally low voter turnout in the second round of the Senate election should not be take lightly. It is not just the legitimacy of political parties that is at stake but the legitimacy of the democratic process as such.

Reuters - 25. 11. 1998