Senate elections will determine the country´s future

The elections to the parliament's upper chamber, the Senate, will in many ways decide about the direction in which the country's political system will develop. Under the so-called "opposition agreement," the two biggest parties--the Social Democrats (CSSD) and the Civic Democratic Party (ODS)--are planning to change the Constitution and the electoral system. One of their intentions is to reduce the influence of small parties, or to eliminate them altogether.

Should the ODS and the CSSD be able to carry out their plans, they need to maintain the constitutional majority they currently have in the 81-seat Senate. The elections, whose first round is scheduled for 13-14 November, will take place in 27 of the 81 districts. The two parties need to win in more than a half of those 27 districts, to maintain their constitutional majority.

A two-round majority system is used in the Senate elections. Candidates who win more than 50 percent of the popular vote in their district in the first round, win seats in the Senate. If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, the candidates who placed first and second face a run-off in the second round, which is scheduled for 27-28 November.

Four small right-of-center parties--the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL), the Union of Freedom (US), the Civic Democratic Alliance (ODA), and the Democratic Union (DEU)--have established a coalition with the aim of preventing the ODS and the CSSD from renewing their constitutional majority in the Senate. Doing so will be a difficult task for several reasons. Most important, both the CSSD and the ODS have stable cores of followers, who support their parties even after the conclusion of the "opposition agreement." Moreover, voters of both parties, and those of the ODS in particular, are fairly disciplined.

The four small parties all see themselves in the right side of the political spectrum, but they have very different philosophies. It is quite possible that they will not be able to speak with one voice. The signing of the coalition agreement was, in fact, preceded by disagreements over which candidate should represent the coalition in which district. And the four parties did not stop arguing about who should represent them in the Karlovy Vary district even after signing the agreement. A lack of unity may hurt the coalition badly in the elections. Czech voters are tired of the kind of political quarreling exhibited in the past by the ODA in particular.

The behavior of the ODS will also be important. The ODS claims to be a right-of-center party that is in the opposition to the CSSD. It should, therefore, support the new right-of-center coalition candidates in the second round in those districts where ODS candidates will be eliminated in the first round. However, it seems that the ODS is more interested in gaining a constitutional majority together with the CSSD and, subsequently, eliminating the small parties, than in supporting rightist parties. It is, therefore, quite likely, that the ODS will prefer to support CSSD candidates in the second round.

The fact that Czech voters tend to vote against dominant parties could help the coalition of the small parties. In the general elections in 1996, many voters supported the CSSD not because they were in favor of its program but because they wanted to reduce the influence of the dominant ODS. In the first round of the Senate elections in 1996, ODS candidates placed first in 79 districts out of the 81 districts. Yet, the ODS in the end won only 32 seats, as many voters, fearing the dominance of one party, decided to support smaller parties. Before the June 1998 elections, opinion polls indicated that the CSSD will comfortably win the elections and will be able to form a coalition government. In the end, the ODS placed close second.

It is possible that many voters will vote for the coalition of the four small parties because they will want to prevent the two big parties from totally dominating the Czech political system. Another important factor that may help the new coalition is the fact that the opponents of the political alliance between the ODS and the CSSD will be much more motivated to vote than those voters who are satisfied with the opposition agreement. If the voter turnout is similar to that in 1996 Senate elections (about 30 percent), a higher participation of the followers of particular parties in the elections may play a decisive role.

Reuters - 3. 9. 1998