The rise of the pensioners´ party

Recent opinion polls show that a pensioners' party called the Pensioners for Life Security (DZJ) could pass the electoral barrier of 5 percent and thus win seats in the parliament. According to a poll by the Factum-Sofres agency, the DZJ could win as much as 7 percent. Polls by the other two most prominent polling agencies in the country, the Center for Empirical Studies (STEM) and the Institute for Public Opinion Research (IVVM), indicate that the DZJ would just about pass the 5 percent barrier.

The polls have prompted many commentators to speculate about what role the DZJ could play in the post-election government. Ideologically, the DZJ is a leftist part, but it does not have a comprehensive program. Its main objective, as its name suggests, is to fight for, and secure, better living conditions for Czech pensioners. Should it really win seats in the parliament, it would be a natural coalition partner for the Czech Social Democrats (DZJ). A coalition consisting of the CSSD, the DZJ, and possibly the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) could have a majority in the parliament, despite the fact that some opinion polls show that the CSSD's popularity has been declining.

However, the assumption that the DZJ could indeed become a parliamentary party stands on a shaky ground. The DZJ is a one-issue party. While such parties may do well in opinion polls, in which a specific social group vents its frustrations, they usually do not do well in the elections. In the elections, people have to answer for themselves different questions than when they are confronted with a pollster. The issue of how a one-issue party would fare as a government party becomes more prominent.

The DZJ is more a pressure group--a lobby--than a real political party. Many people who support the Pensioners now may have second thoughts during the elections exactly for that reason. The DZJ is also a party that totter on the bring of the 5 percent barrier. Since the vote for parties that do not clear the 5 percent hurdle is redistributed to those parties that did, many voters, afraid of throwing their votes away will be reluctant to give their votes to the DZJ.

Another problem that the DZJ faces is that some of its demands can be easily "appropriated" by other parties, in particular the CSSD and the Communists. It is almost certain that the latest opinion polls will prompt those and other parties to speak more about the needs of pensioners. If those parties manage to persuade even a relatively small number of the DZJ's current supporters that they are capable of representing their needs, the support for the DZJ is likely to slip back under 5 percent.

Another problem the DZJ faces is that some of its demands are a bit demagogic. True, most pensioners have been hurt by the reform process. The Klaus government did not often pay enough attention to this particular social group. On the other hand, while the real incomes of the pensioners are now lower than they were before the velvet revolution in 1989, a rather generous policy of income indexation--or valorization, as it is called in Czech--is in place. Pension' increases are regular, reflecting the inflation rate. Large discrepancies among various groups of pensioners seem to be a bigger problem than the overall situation of this entire social group.

The hardest hit have been the pensioners who live in rented apartments in big cities. They have to cope not only with the rising costs of various goods but, above all, with the ongoing liberalization of apartment rents and energy prices. Pensioners living in their own houses, particularly in villages, are in a much better situation. And, as some politicians have pointed out, the social group that has been hurt the most are not the pensioners but, rather, low income families with children and single mothers. These groups may feel that the DZJ's demands may hurt them even more, and some politicians may use their discontent to counter the DZJ's demands.

Another reason why the DZJ is not in the end likely to win seats in the parliament is that its leaders are now more exposed to the media. Several recent media appearances by DZJ leaders, including DZJ chairman Eduard Kremlicka, showed that they, especially in TV debates, find it difficult to keep up with more dynamic leaders of other parties. Since the average age of the DZJ leadership is 69 years, it may also be difficult for them to put up with the rigors of the electoral campaign.

While a surprise cannot be excluded, it is more likely that the Pensioners will follow in the footsteps of their Polish colleagues, whose party commanded 14 percent in opinion polls before the last elections, only to fail to win any seats in the parliament. But even if the DZJ should fail to clear the electoral hurdle, its showing will still be important. Most important, if the party wins more than 3 percent of the vote if qualifies for state funding. That would help the DZJ to stay alive as a viable extra parliamentary party that can continue voice various demands. At the same time, if the DZJ falls just short of the 5 percdnt hurdle, it will hurt especially the CSSD--the party that would most benefit from pensioners' vote if the DZJ were not around.

Reuters - 22. 4. 1998