What is next in the Czech Republic

The approval by the parliament of the government of Josef Tosovsky on 28 January opens the way to early elections in June. Had the Tosovsky government not passed the the vote of confidence, the road to elections in June would have been rocky. The president said that if the Tosovsky government had fallen he would have taken his time in naming yet another prime minister. In his opinion, following the constitutional provision that allows the president to dissolve the lower chamber and call early elections only after three consecutive governments have fallen would make the country look ridiculous.

Under such circumstances, Czech political parties would have been able to have elections in June only if they had been able to agree on a constitutional amendment under which the parliament's lower chamber could be dissolved and early elections called. Passing such an amendment would have been difficult, however, without an agreement among major parties, in particular between the the Social Democrats (CSSD) and the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) of former Prime Minister Vaclav Klaus. And even such an agreement would probably make possible the passing of the amendment only in the lower chamber. The Senate has indicated it is opposed to changing the Constitution in the middle of the the current political crisis.

One of the promises made by the Tosovsky government is that it will lead the country to early elections. It has submitted a law to the parliament to which it attached a request for a vote of confidence. All major parliamentary parties have agreed not to discuss the law for three months which under the Czech Constitution means the parliament's lower chamber can be dissolved and early elections called. The president has promised he will indeed dissolve the lower chamber under such circumstances.

Despite the fact that approving the Tosovsky government was clearly the most important prerequisite for getting to early elections in a civilized way, the CSSD and the ODS were reluctant to support the government. The ODS has argued that the way in which the government was put together ignored the results of the last elections and that the ODS was intentionally left out of the process. Klaus also listed objections to the government's program. In reality, the ODS has objected to the Tosovsky government mainly because both Tosovsky and his government could easily prove to be more competent and likable than the Klaus government. In other words, Tosovsky and his government, as their initial actions indicate, could show that a government can conduct decent right-of-center policies, without being arrogant and confrontational.

The more successful the Tosovsky government will be in its five month tenure, the more voters are likely to abandon the ODS. Instead, the parties that are represented in the government--the Civic Democratic Alliance (ODA), the Freedom Union (US) and the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL)--are likely to benefit. Opinion polls show that Tosovsky is tremendously popular among the public. While some of his popularity can be attributed to the fact he is a political newcomer, who is not associated with any political party, he is also popular because he exudes competence and avoids confrontation. He has said repeatedly he wants to introduce a new political style--one based on openness, communication, and searching for compromises.

Tosovsky proved he means his promises seriously when he made a last minute concession to the CSSD before the vote of confidence. In order to be able to support a right-of-center government, the CSSD had demanded that the government outlines in greater detail its plans to deregulate energy prices and move ahead with some privatization measures. Tosovsky promised to deliver a detailed explanation in eight weeks.

He will undoubtedly do so, but even if the government should renege on its promise, it would be very difficult for the CSSD to bring it down at the end of March or in April, as the collapse of the government would certainly thwart the chances of holding the elections in June. The fact the existence of the government is linked with the June elections makes it relatively free. In other words, those political parties that are interested in holding the elections in June will think twice before seriously threatening the government.

In the end, the CSSD decided to support the government not only because its existence is the best guarantee that the elections will be held in June. It also had to answer the question for itself of whether bringing the Tosovsky government down would not hurt its electoral chances. Opinion polls show very clearly that a large majority of Czechs want some political stability for at least a few months. Up to 80% of Czechs see the Tosovsky government as a good temporary solution. At the same time, a majority of Czechs want early elections.

In causing the government's downfall, the CSSD would have upset many moderate, centrist voters. And it is exactly this group of voters that will decide how big will be the margin be with which the CSSD will win the June elections. While there is almost no doubt that the CSSD will indeed win, losing moderate voters could give the CSSD a much smaller victory than it expects. While it is clear that a good performance by the Tosovsky government may to some degree rehabilitate right-of-center policies and prompt some voters to vote for one of the three government parties, the political instability that the CSSD would cause by bringing the Tosovsky government down would convince even more centrist voters that the CSSD is still a radical party that is not to be trusted.

The CSSD's support for the government is thus the right move. It seems that support for the CSSD can grow only if it manages to attract those voters who have abandoned the ODS and other right-of-center and centrist parties. That would not be possible, should the CSSD continue in its attempts to attract radical voters of the Communists and the Republicans. The shift to the political center that the CSSD has demonstrated in recent weeks, and which has resulted in its support for the government, is however likely to test the party's unity. While CSSD Chairman Milos Zeman has clearly embraced a more centrist approach, radicals in the party have been opposed to any ideological concessions. Such ideological differences will become even more prominent if the party wins the elections and has to formulate a coherent government program.

In general, the approval by the parliament of the Tosovsky government is good news for the Czech Republic. It represents continuity with those policies of the previous governments that have worked. At the same time, Tosovsky is committed to dealing seriously with those mistakes of the previous governments that got the country's economy and politics intro trouble. He will not have enough time to carry out all policies outlined in the government's manifesto. He and his government, however, can introduce a different style of doing politics and initiate measures toward a recovery that the post-election government may not want to reverse.

Reuters - 29. 1. 1998