Whom can Social democrats form a coalition with?

The Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD) seems to be headed for a victory in the upcoming parliamentary elections. However, despite the fact opinion polls are indicating that the CSSD may win as much as thirty percent of the popular vote, the party may find it difficult to form a coalition that would supported by a majority of deputies.

Probably the most important reason for problems that lie ahead for the CSSD is that the far-right Republicans and the far-left Communists will, between them, again win as much as twenty percent of the popular vote. That leaves mainstream democratic parties with a relatively narrow political space to work with.

Some CSSD politicians have suggested that the CSSD could form a minority coalition relying on the tacit support of the Communists. Some observers have even warned that the power-hungry CSSD may be tempted to form a coalition with the Communists. Such a scenario is, however, very unlikely, mainly because the CSSD would be in danger of splitting. The centrist wing of the party would find it very difficult to accept a coalition partnership with the unreformed Communists. CSSD leaders, such Petra Buzkova and Stanislav Gross, and their followers, could even leave the party under such circumstances. Several years of very hard work by CSSD chairman Milos Zeman, who has managed to attract and hold together different democratic-left groups under the umbrella of the CSSD, would be wasted.

Another scenario that is often mentioned by political observers is a grand coalition between the Civic Democratic Party (DS) of former Prime Minister Vaclav Klaus. The ODS is likely to finish second with as much as twenty percent of the popular vote. Zeman and Klaus have met several times in recent weeks, fueling speculations about a possible coalition.

However, this scenario is also very unlikely. The two parties have in the past stood on the opposite poles of Czech politics. Klaus and Zeman have severely criticized each, often resorting to very personal terms. The CSSD has said that the Czech Republic after several years of Klaus leadership is "a burned-down land." Klaus, on the other hand, has repeatedly warned right-of-center voters that the CSSD is likely to reverse reforms and take the country back before 1989.

A coalition of the two parties would be seen as a betrayal by many core voters of both parties. Following the recent departure of Klaus's opponents from the ODS, the party is a well-disciplined group, and most of its deputies would probably be willing to swallow the bitter pill of cooperating with the CSSD. The parliamentary caucus of the CSSD, and the party itself, would, however, be in danger of splitting. The CSSD's radical left wing, led by Vladimir Spidla, would find a coalition with the CSSD very hard to justify.

Both Zeman and Klaus would have difficulties to explain the purpose of such a coalition. They could, of course, argue that such a coalition is needed to secure stability in the country. But most CSSD and ODS voters would know that the main purpose of such a coalition is not much more than gaining power that could be used to reduce the influence, and possibly the constitutional powers, of the president.

The best hope for the CSSD thus is that the Pensioners' Party (DZJ) and the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) both win seats in the parliament and agree to form a coalition with the CSSD. Although the KDU-CSL at this point staunchly refuses to even consider working with the populist DZJ, it may be persuaded to change its mind. Such a coalition could have as many as 110 seats in the 200-member parliament. The CSSD would be considered the center of such a coalition, while the DZJ would represent its left-wing, and the KDU-CSL its right wing.

The DZJ is a one-issue party, however, that usually do much better in opinion polls than in elections. Its popularity has been declining in recent weeks. Opinion polls, however, suggest that most people who currently support the DZJ would switch either to the CSSD or the KDU-CSL, should they decide to abandon the DZJ. It is, therefore, possible that the CSSD and the KDU-CSL could, between them, win enough seats to be able to form a majority government.

Another possibility is a minority government formed by the two parties, or only by the CSSD, that would be tacitly supported by, for example, the right-of-center Union of Freedom (US). US chairman Jan Ruml has indicated that his party may give tacit support to a CSSD-KDU/CSL coalition. ODS Chairman Vaclav Klaus, too, has indicated that his party could support a minority government led by the CSSD. Klaus has said that he would prefer such a solution to a government of non-partisan experts.

Reuters - 10. 6. 1998