Who won the Czech elections?

Immediately after the elections, held on 19 and 20 June, many commentators declared the Christian and Democratic Union (KDU-CSL) as the unofficial winner of the elections. Despite the fact the party finished in the fourth place, attracting only 9 percent of the popular vote, it was seen as having the strongest coalition potential. Neither the Social Democratic Party (CSSD, which finished first, winning 32 percent od the popular vote, nor the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), which won 28 percent, were seemingly able to put together a government without the KDU-CSL.

Some pundits also claimed that the real winner of the elections was the ODS because CSSD Chairman Milos Zeman would never be able to form a government that could pass a vote of confidence in the parliament. They assumed that ODS Chairman Vaclav Klaus will take over after Zeman has failed and will have good chances of forming a right-of-center coalition.

Since the CSSD and the ODS on 14 July signed the so-called "opposition contract," under which the ODS promised to tolerate a CSSD government in exchange for getting important posts, and under which the two parties agreed to work together on changing the Constitution, commentators have speculated that the real winner of the elections is Vaclav Klaus. By luring the CSSD into a contractual "trap," Klaus is seemingly in a very good position. The CSSD government will run the country at a time when the Czech economy is experiencing severe problems, while the ODS, despite its contractual obligations toward the CSSD, will play the role of an opposition party and will be able to bring the CSSD government down in an opportune moment.

While it is true that Klaus will be in a advantageous position, and can indeed bring the Zeman government down, in fact he and his party are not likely to govern the country any time soon. The ODS has virtually no coalition potential beyond its current contractual arrangement with the CSSD. It has managed to alienate the KDU-CSL and the Union of Freedom (US), the two small right-of-center parties, to the extent that they are no longer likely even to consider cooperating with the ODS.

Should the CSSD government collapse under pressure from the ODS, Zeman is far more likely than Klaus to be able to put together another government. He can again try to involve the KDU-CSL and the US, just like he did in the first round of talks on forming a government after the elections. The fact he did not succeed then does not mean that the KDU-CSL and the US may not be more forthcoming next time. Being an experienced political strategist, Zeman is likely to begin cultivating relations with the two small parties, which have soured since he signed "the opposition contract" with the ODS. One or both small parties, on the other hand, may be more open to cooperating with Zeman this time around.

Klaus and the ODS could score a real victory only if the CSSD were naive enough to agree to changing the electoral system in such a way that would strongly promote the creation of a two-party system. Under such circumstances, it would be in the ODS's interest to force early elections, which it could win with a large margin. However, small parties are aware that elections, held after a period during which the CSSD will struggle with economic problems, could produce a landslide victory for the ODS. They will be in no hurry to help Vaclav Klaus to such a victory. The CSSD, on the other hand, seems to be increasingly aware that changing the electoral system unwisely--for example, to a one-round majority system--could cost the party dearly.

Given the weak coalition potential of the ODS and the likelihood that other parties will be very cautious about helping Klaus to change the electoral system and, subsequently, trigger early elections, the CSSD is likely to remain in charge of the country's government for the next four years. True, it may not be the current government that will survive the entire four-year period. However, the CSSD would most likely lead any other government that would emerge after the collapse of the CSSD-ODS "opposition contract."

Reuters - 29. 7. 1998