Will grand coalition bring the Czech Republic stability

The 9 July agreement between the Czech Republic's two biggest parties--the right-of-center Civic Democratic Party (ODS) of Vaclav Klaus and the Social Democratic Party (CSSD) of Milos Zeman--has been billed by two parties as a pact designed to bring the country necessary political stability. While it seems that in the short run the agreement of the two biggest rivals in Czech politics could indeed stabilize the political situation, in the medium- and long-run the agreement may have some unpleasant political consequences.

Most important, many voters feel cheated by the agreement. After all, the ODS claimed during the election campaign that it has to prevent the CSSD from coming to power because a CSSD-led government would return the country to socialism. Klaus even called for a "mobilization" of right-of-center voters. The CSSD, on the other hand, claimed that the Klaus-led government had produced a "scorched country." While many voters will appreciate that the two parties, and their leaders, can communicate, they will be confused as to the real purpose of politics and elections. Before the elections, opinion polls indicated that a majority of people were disgusted with politics and politicians. The fact that many voters may feel that they have been betrayed by the parties they voted for, may make the feeling of dissatisfaction with politics even more intense. The Senate and municipal elections in the fall could thus result in a very low voter turnout or political surprises.

Another element of instability in the pact is that the CSSD-led government will be totally dependent on the good will of the ODS. The CSSD will also try to build bridges to other parties, but the agreement basically forbids both parties from seeking coalitions with other parties. The CSSD government will have to deal with a declining economy, social tension, and, at the same time, ensure that the country continues on the path to NATO and EU membership. Given the fact that the country is running a large budget deficit, the CSSD will have to adopt austerity measures rather than fulfill some of its populist promises. Klaus will be in a very comfortable position: he can wait until voters start blaming the CSSD for economic and political problems and then trigger new elections.

It is not certain that the ODS will allow the CSSD to make good on such electoral promises as the "clean hands" drive. Under this policy, the CSSD would initiate investigation into numerous cases of doubtful privatization deals and corruption. Since the CSSD before the elections repeatedly accused the ODS of having succumbed to temptations of corruption, the "clean hands" action would be aimed at the ODS and its political clients.

The agreement is unstable also because it will generate strong political passions. Smaller parties have already accused the ODS and the CSSD of "a constitutional putsch," because under the agreement the ODS and the CSSD would prevent no-confidence votes in the government and would work together on changing the current electoral system of proportional representation to a system that would create "a more stable political environment." This basically means they want to eliminate small parties through an electoral law change. Small parties will certainly continue to protest against what they see as an unholy alliance of the two former rivals.

The fact that the parties basically agreed to divide important state posts between them will also provoke political controversies. For example, the agreement stipulates that the ODS will take over the chairmanships of both chambers of the parliament, although in the June elections voters elected only the lower chamber of the parliament. The two parties also agree that the ODS will hold the presidency of the Supreme Auditing Office, despite the fact that oppinting the president of that office is the prerogative of President Havel.

The two parties have also announced that they will change the Constitution. That, in itself, is not a bad idea, since the Constitution needs repairing. But the alliance of the two parties has raised suspicions that they will try to change the Constitution in the way that suits, most of all, the two of them. The results could thus be quite questionable, producing a system in which political competition and pluralism are reduced. While such changes could make the Czech Republic more stable internally, they may not be viewed favorably abroad, in particular by the organizations that the Czech Republic is aspiring to join.

Reuters - 10. 7. 1998