Will Milos Zeman resign?

In a document prepared for an upcoming party leadership meeting, Social Democratic Party (CSSD) Chairman Milos Zeman recently wrote that he will leave politics in four years, prior to the next general elections. His statement, leaked to the media, has provoked a storm of speculations about Zeman's real intentions.

Some commentators have accused him that he is, again, playing a tactical game whose objective is to consolidate his own power within the CSSD prior to the spring congress of the party. Such an argument is, however, problematic because Zeman does not need to consolidate his power. His position in the party is unshakable after he led the CSSD to an electoral victory and subsequently successfully presided over forming a CSSD government. Although the party had to concede important state posts to its biggest rival, the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), in exchange for being allowed to form a minority government, the government is more stable than it may seem. The ODS will have little or no interest to bring the CSSD government down at least until the two parties change the constitution and the electoral system--as envisaged in their joint "opposition agreement." The CSSD knows that and will be in no hurry to introduce such changes.

Other commentators have speculated that Zeman is threatening to resign because he wants to prevent party officials from struggling for power. If they realize that they may have to do without Zeman, they may become more responsible. Such an argument is, once again, dubious. Should Zeman want to put pressure on party officials to start behaving more responsibly, he would threaten to resign at the next party congress. Party leaders would have to find a common language quickly or face the possibility that the party, without Zeman, may disintegrate.

Yet another argument is that Zeman allegedly realizes his party is going to lose the next elections to the ODS and he does have the courage to deal with such a defeat. Such an argument is based on the presumption that the CSSD government will indeed be unsuccessful. But will it be? It is true the government is in trouble at this point. CSSD ministers do not come across as being competent. The government has made some serious mistakes. And the CSSD has inherited an economy in deep recession. At the same time, however, four years is a long time, and the terms of the "opposition agreement" are such that CSSD may be able to complete one full term.

It is entirely possible that the Czech economy may begin improving. There are already signs of revival, spurred by austerity measures introduced by the previous governments. In the last year, the Klaus and the Tosovsky governments adopted a number of measures aimed at improving the banking system and making the capital markets more transparent. The rules under which the country's economy works have become clearer and stricter. At the same time, the CSSD does not seem to be prone to behave irresponsibly.

It is entirely possible that the best explanation for Zeman's decision to leave politics is the simplest one--that is the one he has himself offered. He feels tired after nine years of active, and often hectic, political activity. He has other priorities in life than being a politician. And he can be proud of what he has accomplished: transforming the CSSD from a small party into the biggest party in the country that has now taken over governing the country.

The reason why Zeman has decided to announce his retirement from politics four years in advance may also be simple. The CSSD will indeed need to find a credible successor to Zeman. Should he announce his resignation just a few months before leaving, the party could easily be torn apart by a succession struggle. At the same time, Zeman would have little or no control over who will replace him in the post of party chairman.

His announcement gives him enough time to play a major role in choosing his successor. Such a process may start as early as next spring, during the party congress. It is quite likely that Zeman will promote a particular person to become the party's first deputy chairman. And he will work closely with such a person until he retires in the year 2002. From that point of view, the spring congress of the CSSD may decide who will lead the party after Zeman.

Reuters - 10. 9. 1998